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Fathom · 杠杆预测市场模拟盘|1–10× 杠杆 · 实时镜像 Polymarket
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24h 热门
总成交量
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即将截止
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
5
0.3%
1
69.5%
3
2%
$4.7k Vol
12月31日 截止
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑4k
80%
↑3k
93.5%
↑5k
33.5%
$2.2k Vol
12月31日 截止
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 10 - August 16?
2
0%
3
95.4%
1
0%
$734 Vol
8月17日 截止
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
<425mm
35%
700mm+
28.5%
475-500mm
18.7%
$710 Vol
9月1日 截止
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.42–1.45ºC
31%
1.34–1.37ºC
10.5%
1.38–1.41ºC
37%
$542 Vol
9月1日 截止
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 32, 2026?
<0.1
79%
0.1
13%
>0.1
0.4%
$313 Vol
8月21日 截止
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
6.1%
市场概率
$308 Vol
12月31日 截止
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
8–10
0.6%
17–19
37%
14–16
41%
$277 Vol
12月31日 截止
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 17 - August 23?
0
45.5%
5
0.8%
1
35%
$265 Vol
8月24日 截止
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
0.7%
市场概率
$172 Vol
12月31日 截止
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
140-169
8%
200+
8.4%
40–59
8.5%
$153 Vol
9月1日 截止
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22.5%
市场概率
$117 Vol
12月31日 截止
Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
2750+
71.5%
2450+
100%
2600+
98.4%
$115 Vol
8月31日 截止
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12%
市场概率
$64 Vol
12月31日 截止
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6.8%
市场概率
$61 Vol
12月31日 截止
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
97.2%
市场概率
$40 Vol
10月1日 截止
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6.3%
市场概率
$16 Vol
3月31日 截止
Precipitation in NYC in August?
<2"
4.2%
5-6"
38.5%
2-3"
5%
$16 Vol
9月1日 截止
Precipitation in Seoul in August?
500mm+
38.5%
300-350mm
41.5%
400-500mm
42.5%
$10 Vol
9月1日 截止
Precipitation in London in August?
80mm+
22.5%
30-40mm
11.2%
40-50mm
9.7%
$6 Vol
9月1日 截止
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
20,000+
46.5%
15,000+
99.1%
10,000+
100%
$5 Vol
8月31日 截止
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
<950
4.4%
1200–1249
8.3%
1050–1099
0.4%
$81.7k Vol
1月10日 截止
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
1
19%
5+
0.9%
2
3.5%
$1.1m Vol
3月31日 截止
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
4th or lower
1%
3rd hottest
2%
2nd hottest
3.1%
$1.1k Vol
9月1日 截止
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2
Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
50%
3
XRP Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
50.5%
4
Dogecoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET
50%
5
Ethereum Up or Down - August 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
50.5%
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