This market will resolve according to the country in which the next direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between Russia and Ukraine begins between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. References below to the listed countries or entities refer to Russia and Ukraine.
A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, prisoner exchange, or further engagement.
A meeting qualifies regardless of its subject matter, including meetings limited to humanitarian issues (e.g., prisoner exchanges, the return of civilians or children, or humanitarian pauses), whether or not broader Russia-Ukraine peace terms, such as a ceasefire, peace agreement, territorial issues, security guarantees, or similar, are discussed. Mediators, envoys, or other third-party officials do not count as representatives of either listed country.
A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. Ukraine's Parliamentary Commissioner for Human Rights and Russia's High Commissioner for Human Rights will not be considered senior-level representatives. Qualifying individuals include, regardless of their position: for Russia, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov, Vladimir Medinsky, Igor Kostyukov, Kirill Dmitriev, Sergei Ryabkov, Mikhail Galuzin, and Yuri Zhigarlovsky; and for Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, Rustem Umerov, Kyrylo Budanov, Serhiy Kyslytsya, Davyd Arakhamia, Andrii Hnatov, and Vadym Skibitsky. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting.
A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.
Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening.
The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.
If the next qualifying diplomatic meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first diplomatic session begins.
For the purpose of this market, a meeting held on Ukrainian territory under the de facto control of Russia (e.g., Crimea) will be considered part of Russia. A meeting held in Vatican City will resolve to "Vatican City," not "Italy."
If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Europe." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to "Other - Middle East/North Africa." If the next qualifying meeting takes place in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to "Other."
For purposes of this market, countries' regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department's regional classifications in the "Countries and Areas List" (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of "Europe and Eurasia" will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of "Near East (Middle East and North Africa)" will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa.
If no qualifying senior-level diplomatic meeting begins between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by December 31, 2027.”
The occurrence of a qualifying meeting must be confirmed by the resolution sources by the resolution date.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
