Pia do Pêndulo

The pendulum swung 32 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 28¢.

UUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Atual24,5¢−3,7¢

The pendulum swung 17 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 74¢.

6Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026?65-89ResultadoNão

The pendulum swung 33 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 41¢.

9Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026?90-114Atual4,2¢−37,7¢

The pendulum swung 26 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 74¢.

3Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?360-379ResultadoNão

The pendulum swung 31 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 69¢.

3Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?320-339ResultadoSim

The pendulum swung 40 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 60¢.

3Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?300-319ResultadoNão

The pendulum swung 29 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 69¢.

2Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?240-259ResultadoNão

The pendulum swung 32 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 62¢.

2Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?220-239ResultadoNão

The pendulum swung 21 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 65¢.

DUS strike on Colombia by...?December 31Atual76,5¢+10,1¢

Varredura democrata a 65%, com Senado e Câmara precificados juntos, mas a faixa de 1% com Senado democrata e Câmara republicana quase não tem comprador—ou esses dois são a mesma história, ou um dos dois está mal colocado. No Senado eu não tenho certeza, mas calculando as duas casas separadas, esses 65% estão altos demais.

The pendulum swung 41 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 22¢.

4Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026?40-64ResultadoSim

The pendulum swung 63 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 28¢.

4Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026?<40ResultadoNão