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Política econômica
F
Fed Decision in October?No change83,5%▲3pp25 bps increase15,5%▼4ppH
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?0 (0 bps)95,8%1 (25 bps)1,7%U
US recession by end of 2026?Sim6,5%▼1ppNão93,5%F
Fed rate cut by...?December 2026 Meeting3,5%▲0,4ppMarch 2027 Meeting20%▼2ppJuly 2027 Meeting50,5%▼2,5ppA
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Sim76,5%▼1ppNão23,5%R
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?25 bps increase60,5%▲4ppNo change30%▼6,5pp50+ bps increase4,9%▲1,5ppU
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?≥3.0%72,5%▲6pp2.5–3.0%15%▲2,5pp2.0–2.5%10%▼0,5ppB
Bank of Japan Decision in October?No change93,5%▲5pp25 bps increase5%▼6,5ppE
Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 20260.8-1.1%43,5%▲3,5pp1.2-1.5%32,4%▼5,9pp0.0-0.3%13,2%▲4,5ppR
Reserve Bank of India decision in December25 bps increase79%▲34,5ppNo Change18%▼18,5pp50+ bps increase12,5%▲1,5ppW
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?↓ 3.25%2,8%▼1,5pp↓ 2.75%2,6%▼0,1pp↑ 4.75%7,4%▲1,7ppF
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike59,5%▲0,5ppHike–Pause–Pause21,5%Hike–Hike–Hike12,5%▼1pp 