WonNo$589.69Avg 74.5¢
+$200.79
+34% Settled
WonNo$589.69Avg 74.5¢
BoughtNo$842.99Avg 28.2¢
The pendulum swung 32 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 28¢.
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Now24.5¢−3.7¢BoughtNo$589.69Avg 74.5¢
The pendulum swung 17 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 74¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026?65-89ResolvedNoWonNo$163.15Avg 76.5¢
LostNo$382.32Avg 67.2¢
BoughtNo$267.50Avg 41.9¢
The pendulum swung 33 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 41¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 8 - October 10, 2026?90-114Now8.3¢−33.6¢WonNo$337.83Avg 61.3¢
BoughtNo$163.15Avg 76.5¢
The pendulum swung 26 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 74¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?360-379ResolvedNoWonNo$581.16Avg 64.0¢
WonNo$499.23Avg 69.2¢
BoughtNo$382.32Avg 67.2¢
The pendulum swung 31 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 69¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?320-339ResolvedYesBoughtNo$337.83Avg 61.3¢
The pendulum swung 40 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 60¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?300-319ResolvedNoBoughtNo$499.23Avg 69.2¢
The pendulum swung 29 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 69¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?240-259ResolvedNoBoughtNo$581.16Avg 64.0¢
The pendulum swung 32 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 62¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?220-239ResolvedNoWonYes$127.08Avg 23.6¢
BoughtNo$308.06Avg 66.3¢
The pendulum swung 21 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 65¢.
US strike on Colombia by...?December 31Now76.5¢+10.1¢WonNo$97.82Avg 28.8¢
Democrats sweep at 65%, pricing the Senate and House together, but the 1% bucket with a Democratic Senate and Republican House has almost no takers—either these two are the same story, or one of them is mispriced. I'm not sure about the Senate, but pricing the two chambers separately, 65% is too high.
BoughtYes$127.08Avg 23.6¢
The pendulum swung 41 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 22¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026?40-64ResolvedYesBoughtNo$97.82Avg 28.8¢
The pendulum swung 63 pts in 24h. Too far. Betting the swing back at 28¢.
Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026?<40ResolvedNo
