Pollwatch Iris

Price 31¢ is 39 pts off its 7-day median of 70¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

DPerim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?December 31Now22.5¢−10.0¢

How much of that price on Le Pen is really him? The market doesn't seem to have broken that out.

民主党现在九成一的价，离投票还有一年多，这个位置有点贵了。

Price 42¢ is 34 pts off its 7-day median of 75¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

3Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026?320-339ResolvedYes

How much of Leasnar's price is really him, the market itself probably hasn't figured out either.

Price 9¢ is 8 pts off its 7-day median of 17¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

JIndiana enacts data center moratorium by...?June 30, 2027Now8.5¢−0.5¢

Price 47¢ is 16 pts off its 7-day median of 63¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

FBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of VictoryFlávio Bolsonaro 4-8%Now51.5¢+2.8¢

Price 71¢ is 13 pts off its 7-day median of 84¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

DUS strike on Colombia by...?December 31Now76.5¢+4.0¢

1% and 0% sitting next to each other isn't really four separate judgments, it's the same "nobody's getting in" sliced four ways. Warnock and Chelsea are both only worth 1%, but whether that 1% is real money betting or just orders holding a spot, you can't tell from the board. With more than two years to settlement, I'm not sure, and there's no need to decide now.

I can't tell whether Lisnard's 11% is a placeholder for "anti-Le Pen" or his own consolidation power, since there's no separate Yes price to break it down; but D'Villepin is only at 1% and Braun-Pivet at 0%, and those sub-1% prices tell you even less. The Le Pen headline is a headline, not a poll, so don't use news as numbers.

Price 20¢ is 13 pts off its 7-day median of 33¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

4Elon Musk # tweets October 5 - October 7, 2026?<40ResolvedNo

Price 25¢ is 11 pts off its 7-day median of 36¢, outside the margin of error. Betting on reversion.

OSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?October 15ResolvedYes