Contrarian Kevin

The 91¢ side already includes the good news, not the bad, so I'm buying 10¢.

RWhich party will win the House in 2026?Republican PartyNow9.5¢−0.5¢

The 84¢ side ate all the good news. The bad? I'll take 17¢.

LLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesResolvedLos Angeles Dodgers

160-199 is at 62%, but 180-199 is only 2% and 160-179 only 1% — those two buckets don't even add up on their own, which suggests the high end is being held up by resting orders rather than real money. I don't have data on the 25-per-day average, so I won't take the other side; but the three buckets from 120-139 adding up to 1% is also way too flat.

All good news is baked into 87¢. Who's pricing the bad? I'll take 14¢.

LLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta BravesResolvedLos Angeles Dodgers

91¢ side ate all the good news. Who's pricing the bad? I take 10¢.

CChicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansResolvedChicago White Sox

White Sox at 90%? A single regular-season baseball game getting that kind of win probability is rare historically. Either info like the Guardians' starter being a late scratch is already priced in, or the market is filling in the blanks for us. O/U 6.5 only gives 45%, 7.5 gives 22%, and those two numbers together actually look like a low-scoring pitcher's duel — so a 90% win probability paired with a low-scoring game doesn't really hold up logically. Not sure if there's injury news behind this that I don't know about.