How low will 5-year Treasury yield get in November?
$6,694 VolSettles Dec 1
MarketChance
Below 4.59%
$1,004 Vol.
9.4%▲3.5pp
Below 4.56%
$992 Vol.
5%▲0.4pp
Below 4.53%
$1,003 Vol.
4.9%▲2pp
Below 4.50%
$716 Vol.
4.5%▲1.1pp
Below 4.44%
$639 Vol.
4.5%▲2.5pp
Below 4.41%
$453 Vol.
4.4%▲2.7pp
Below 4.47%
$1,301 Vol.
4.3%▲2.4pp
Below 4.37%
$308 Vol.
3.9%▲2.4pp
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).