How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in November?
$12.3K VolSettles Dec 1
MarketChance
Below 4.61%
$3,089 Vol.
5.1%▲2.2pp
Below 4.57%
$446 Vol.
4.9%▲2.4pp
Below 4.79%
$1,284 Vol.
3.1%▲0.3pp
Below 4.64%
$825 Vol.
2.7%▲0.2pp
Below 4.73%
$1,327 Vol.
2.5%▼0.7pp
Below 4.82%
$1,932 Vol.
2.3%▼4.8pp
Below 4.70%
$858 Vol.
2.1%▼0.4pp
Below 4.67%
$1,669 Vol.
2.1%▲0.4pp
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 3, 2026 and November 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the last business day of November 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the last business day of November 2026 by December 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).