跳到主要内容Fathom · 杠杆预测市场模拟盘｜1–10× 杠杆 · 实时镜像 Polymarket所有盘口
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?August 3114.5%August 150%August 226.5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?August 311.1%August 150%
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Russia0%Kazakhstan0%Iran0%
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?August 152%July 100%July 170%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?11.5%市场概率
Putin out as President of Russia by...?December 31, 20267.5%August 31, 20260.7%September 30, 20262.2%
Iran leadership change by...?December 3116.5%September 304.5%August 311.2%
Israel closes its airspace by...?August 313%August 150%July 240%
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Gilad Erdan0.2%Amir Ohana0.2%Benjamin Netanyahu29%Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?August 319.5%August 150%September 3032%
Trump out as President before 2027?5.5%市场概率
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?August 311.9%September 3010%December 3117%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?October 3115.5%December 3121.5%August 310.9%
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Kazem Gharibabadi19.5%Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani54%J.D. Vance49.5%
Iran leader end of 2026?Mojtaba Khamenei82.2%Hassan Rouhani0.7%Mahmoud Ahmadinejad1.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?9.5%市场概率
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?No meeting by December 3161%China32%South Korea0.1%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?December 317.4%September 303.4%January 150%
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Donald Trump0.1%Dinorah Figuera0.1%Evan Pettus0.1%
Netanyahu out by...?December 3146.5%June 300%March 310%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?August 312.8%December 3126.5%October 3111%Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?43.5%市场概率
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?December 31, 202639.5%November 300%June 30, 20260%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?August 15, 20260%December 31, 202686.7%August 31, 202626%
